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基于贝叶斯理论的全球海温异常对500 hPa温度场的影响分析
The analysis of the influence of globe SST anomalies on 500 hPa temperature field based on Bayesian
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摘要: 本文利用经验正交函数（EOF）将海表温度（SST）距平场进行分解,得到一组相互正交的模态构成重构空间,然后在该空间中展开500 hPa温度场,进一步借助贝叶斯分析方法定义各个模态对温度场的影响指数,并研究指数随不同海温分布型（模态）的变化特征.结果发现SST场在4—6月份对500 hPa温度场的影响较大,且气候发生转变后,不同海温分布型对温度场的影响不同.Abstract: In this paper, we break down sea surface temperature（SST） anomaly field by using the empirical orthogonal function （EOF） to obtain a rebuilding space made up of different patterns which are orthogonal to each other, then we unfold 500 hPa temperature field in this space. Furthermore, with the method of Bayesian analysis, we define the impact index of different patterns on 500 hPa air temperature field and research the variation characteristic of index with the change of spatial pattern of SST. It is found that SST field has a great effect on 500 hPa temperature field between April to June. Besides, after the abrupt climate change, different patterns of SST have different effects on temnerature field.
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