摘要:
基于元胞自动机,研究传播延迟对复杂网络病毒传播动力学行为的影响,提出一种新的易染状态-感染状态-易染状态（SIS）传播模型.研究表明,传播延迟的存在显著降低了网络的传播临界值,增强了网络中病毒爆发的危险性.研究还发现,随着传播延迟的增大,病毒的感染程度以及传播速率都明显增大.此外,SIS传播模型不仅能够反映病毒的平均传播趋势,而且可以描述病毒随时间的动态演化过程以及病毒的爆发和消亡等概率事件,从而有效地克服了利用平均场方法构建的微分方程模型只能反映病毒平均传播趋势的局限性.同时,还给出有效控制网络中病毒传播的策略.
Abstract:
In this paper,based on the cellular automata,we propose a new susceptible-infected-susceptible （SIS） model to study epidemic spreading in the networks with spreading delay.Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the existence of spreading delay can significantly reduce the epidemic threshold and enhance the risk of outbreak of epidemics.It is also found that both the epidemic prevalence and the propagation velocity increase obviously with the spreading delay increasing.Moreover,the SIS model proposed in this paper describes not only the average propagation tendency of epidemics,but also the dynamic evolution process over the time of epidemics and the probability events such as outbreak and extinction of epidemics,and thus can overcome the limitations of the differential equation model based on mean-field method that describes only the average transmitting tendency of epidemics.Meanwhile,some suggestions of how to effectively control the propagation of epidemics are presented.
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