混沌系统中可预报性的研究

封国林; 戴新刚; 王爱慧; 丑纪范

doi:10.3321/j.issn:1000-3290.2001.04.005

物理学报

混沌系统中可预报性的研究

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封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范. 2001: 混沌系统中可预报性的研究, 物理学报, 50(4): 606-611. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-3290.2001.04.005

引用本文:

封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范. 2001: 混沌系统中可预报性的研究, 物理学报, 50(4): 606-611. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-3290.2001.04.005

FENG GUO-LIN, DAI XIN-GANG, WANG AI-HUI, CHOU Ji-Fan. 2001: ON NUMERICAL PREDICTABILITY IN THE CHAOS SYSTEM, Acta Physica Sinica, 50(4): 606-611. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-3290.2001.04.005

Citation:

FENG GUO-LIN, DAI XIN-GANG, WANG AI-HUI, CHOU Ji-Fan. 2001: ON NUMERICAL PREDICTABILITY IN THE CHAOS SYSTEM, Acta Physica Sinica, 50(4): 606-611. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-3290.2001.04.005

混沌系统中可预报性的研究

扬州大学理学院物理系,
兰州大学大气科学系,

ON NUMERICAL PREDICTABILITY IN THE CHAOS SYSTEM

摘要: 针对简化的气候模式、Rossler 吸引子和超混沌系统，进一步阐明了不确定原理，在数值求解时由于计算机固有精度而引起的舍入误差，造成对解的不确定性，存在最优步长和最大有效计算时间.运用自忆性原理，导出了各混沌系统的自忆性方程，取最优步长时，其预报性能有明显的改善.
- 自忆性 /
- 不确定原理 /
- 最优步长
Abstract: The rounding-off error introduces uncertainty in the numerical solution. A computational uncertainty principle was explained by using climate model and the Rossler and super chaos system, and the maximally effective computation time and optimal stepsize are discussed. Under optimal stepsize in solving nonlinear ordinary differential equations, self-memorization equations of chaos systems constitute a new approach to numerical weather prediction.