采用优化极限学习机的多变量混沌时间序列预测
Prediction of multivariable chaotic time series using optimized extreme learning machine
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摘要: 基于优化极限学习机理论,提出一种多变量混沌时间序列预测方法.该方法利用复合混沌和混沌变尺度算法对极限学习机的模型参数进行搜索和优化,以提高极限学习机的泛化性能;然后利用优化后的极限学习机对Rossler耦合系统的多变量混沌时序进行一步和多步预测,并且与同类算法进行了比较,结果表明了该方法的有效性,且算法具有较强的抗噪能力;最后讨论了预测结果和隐层神经元数目的关系.Abstract: A prediction algorithm of multivariable chaotic time series is proposed based on optimized extreme learning machine (ELM). In this algorithm, a presented composite chaos system and mutative scale chaos method are utilized first to search and optimize the parameters of ELM for improving the generalization performance, Then the optimized ELM is used to predict the multivariable chaotic time series of Rossler coupled system for single step and muti-step, and the scheme is compared with the congeneric method, which shows the validity and stronger ability against noise of the developed algorithm. Finally, the relation between prediction result and number of hidden neurons is discussed.
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